Irish Unification Referendum Must Not Become 'A Sequel to Brexit', Analysts Warn

Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."

Appeal for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."