The Collapse of the 28-Point Peace Initiative for Ukraine: How Peace Negotiations Continue to Stumble

Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new approach from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.